U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to meet in Beijing on Thursday, with a sweeping agenda that spans trade, technology, Taiwan, rare earth export controls, the Iran conflict, and artificial intelligence \u2014 and virtually every major economy watching from the sidelines.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
“Virtually everyone has a stake in the outcome of this meeting,” said Chad Bown<\/strong>, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n The summit carries outsized consequences for countries that will have no seat at the table. From Brussels to Tokyo, Singapore to Moscow, governments and markets are bracing for outcomes that could reshape supply chains, energy flows, and the geopolitical order.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Both sides have escalated pressure in the lead-up to the summit. Washington has accused Beijing of running “industrial-scale” campaigns<\/strong> to steal American AI technology. China, in turn, ordered companies not to comply with U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil and hosted Iran’s foreign minister in a pointed diplomatic signal.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n China’s decision to suspend exports of rare earths and related magnets \u2014 and its ban on semiconductors from Nexperia China \u2014 has already upended supply chains critical to global automakers, with knock-on effects across Europe, Japan, and South Korea.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n The meeting was originally scheduled for March but was delayed after Washington became embroiled in its war against Iran, which analysts describe as the world’s most severe energy shock in history. Trump has signalled his intention to host Xi in Washington later this year, which would mark the Chinese leader’s first visit to the U.S. capital in a decade.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Ahead of the summit, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng<\/strong> and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent<\/strong> are set to meet in South Korea on Wednesday to discuss trade and economic issues \u2014 an attempt, analysts say, to prevent recent escalations from derailing a truce reached between the two powers last year.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Both Washington and Beijing have confirmed that Taiwan will sit at the top of the agenda. Beijing has reportedly pressed the Trump administration to scale back its security commitments to the island and revise official U.S. policy toward Taipei.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n The pressure follows Xi’s meeting last month with Cheng Li-wun<\/strong>, chairwoman of Taiwan’s main opposition party, the Kuomintang, during which Xi reiterated that China would never tolerate Taiwanese independence. Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te<\/strong> responded sharply, warning that “compromising with authoritarian regimes only sacrifices sovereignty and democracy.”<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Any softening of Washington’s position \u2014 even rhetorical \u2014 would be “the most destabilising outcome” of the summit, according to Bonnie Glaser<\/strong>, managing director of the Indo-Pacific programme at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n “A tacit or explicit bargain in which Washington appears to concede a sphere of influence to Beijing over Taiwan” could embolden China to take more assertive steps to erode Taiwan’s autonomy, Glaser warned.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n In a call with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on 30 April, China’s top diplomat Wang Yi<\/strong> described Taiwan as “the biggest point of risk” in the bilateral relationship, urging Washington to “keep its promise and make the right choices.”<\/p>\n<\/p>\n For Southeast Asian governments, the central concern is whether any deal alters the tariff differential between Chinese goods and their own exports. “If tariff levels on Chinese exports drop, the business rationale for moving production from China to countries like Vietnam will also drop,” said Stephen Olson<\/strong>, senior visiting fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n The Strait of Hormuz adds another dimension of anxiety for the region. Southeast Asian nations are heavily reliant on Gulf oil and have borne a disproportionate share of the energy shock triggered by the Middle East conflict. Singapore officials have repeatedly warned of the economic toll while calling for free passage through the Strait.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Should Trump and Xi reach a joint agreement to reopen the strait, analysts say it could offer near-term relief \u2014 though most consider such an outcome unlikely.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n A successful summit may paradoxically spell setbacks for Brussels and Tokyo. A potential energy deal in which Beijing agrees to purchase more U.S. oil and gas could push global commodity prices higher, according to Matt Gertken<\/strong>, chief strategist at BCA Research.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Any progress on trade \u2014 particularly Chinese commitments to direct investment into the U.S. economy \u2014 could displace Japanese and European market share, Gertken added. For allies expecting solidarity, the transactional logic of a bilateral U.S.-China deal offers little comfort.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Moscow is watching closely. Chinese support has become increasingly critical to Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, and any improvement in U.S.-China relations could threaten that alignment. After the last in-person Trump-Xi meeting in October, Russian officials moved quickly to reaffirm Moscow’s alliance with Beijing.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n “Russia would be nervous about an overall improvement in U.S.-China relations,” said Dennis Wilder<\/strong>, a former U.S. intelligence official and professor at Georgetown University. One possible summit outcome, Wilder noted, could be a reduction in China’s material support for Russia’s military campaign.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit Beijing next week \u2014 just days after Trump’s departure.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n The world’s two largest economies are at an inflection point. Eswar Prasad<\/strong>, professor of economics at Cornell University, told CNBC that the entire world would be hoping the two leaders could “reach agreement on at least a subset of issues and find ways to prevent any further escalation of tensions on the remaining ones.”<\/p>\n<\/p>\n The outcome, Prasad warned, could have major ramifications for global trade, geopolitics, and “the very survival of the rules-based order.” A contentious summit that deepens tensions, he added, could prolong economic and geopolitical volatility \u2014 crippling trade and growth at a moment when neither can be taken for granted.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" A Summit With Global Stakes U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to meet in Beijing on Thursday, with a sweeping agenda that spans trade, technology, Taiwan, rare earth export controls, the Iran conflict, and artificial intelligence \u2014 and virtually every major economy watching from the sidelines. “Virtually everyone has a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3683,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3684","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-singapore","category-trending"],"blocksy_meta":[],"yoast_head":"\nHigh Tension Heading Into Beijing<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
Taiwan: The Highest-Stakes Issue<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
Southeast Asia Watches the Tariff Gap<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
Japan and Europe: A Deal Could Hurt Them Too<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
Russia: Nervous on the Margins<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
The Broader Stakes<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n